Long time no blog

I have been telling myself I need to blog, but I just haven't had a chance to. I haven't pulled an all-nighter @ SLC this term until last Sunday/Monday when I had to finish a couple of essays.

So I finished 2 exams today, talk about a great way to spend Easter Monday. Had my first one at 9am in the morning, and second at 4pm. Both went quite well I think, definitely think I did better on the first one, not really because of the subject, but I guess the question (and only question) suited me more than the questions on the second exam.

A couple more exams and I'm done on the 19th...yippee!

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Softball season is definitely right around the corner. Leadership has been formed and registration is taking place. This year will definitely be a challenging year, and a transition year. But this year will also be a very encouraging year, with new (and past) people stepping up into various leadership roles. I am already encouraged to see a few people in particular stepping up, and taking the initiative to take charge of various initiatives. This is going to be an exciting year to see everyone "growing up".

Also will be a challenge on the field, but definitely a welcoming challenge. With quite a number of new players, this is certainly going to be the year where struggles will occur, there will be times when strands of hair will mysteriously go from the head to the palm of the hand, but I'm sure the fruit that is sowed at the end of the year will be one of joy and satisfaction, seeing the growth experienced on and off the field.

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Sad to see the Leafs not making the playoffs, and continue to their roller coaster ride of mediocrity. I really feel that the Leafs, out of Montreal, Toronto, and New York Islanders, had the best shot of taking Buffalo down from the #1 seed. With DiPietro out, I don't see the Islanders taking the Sabres beyond 5 games. Montreal have no depth on their defensively line beyond their top 2, and certainly will not be able to contain the balanced attack of the Sabres. The Leafs had the size up front and on the blue line to really wear down the Sabres offense. As witnessed int he last two games between the teams, the Leafs can be a handful if they want to be to the Sabres. Too bad it won't be happening this year.

In a way, I'm glad the Leafs didn't make the playoffs. It will allow the spotlight to shine brightly on the much improved Raptors team. Would love to see the Raptors go beyond the first round (not just because I have tickets), but I definitely think this team could make a legit run at the conference title. While some critics are citing the lack of overall NBA playoff experience as the Rpators downfall, the Raptors team do have several players with "big game" experience. Both Bargnani and Anthony Parker have played at the highest level of the Euro league for a few years, with Calderon and Garbejosa (even though he is out) bringing the World Championship experience, and Rasho bringing his NBA championship experience from the Spurs. This is definitely exciting time to be a Raptors fan.

The Jays started their season last week, and have played pretty well, with just 2 major bumps on the road thus far with BJ blowing a 3 run lead, and AJ giving up 6 runs in his first outing. This is possibly the year to make the run, with the Yankees potentially slipping to third. Boston have a really solid lineup, with the exception of an iffy bullpen, but I see Boston taking the East with the Jays coming in second and the Bronx Bombers in third. Dice-K was very impressive in his debut, but I'm leaning towards a 14 win season, with an ERA of just above 4.0. I see the potential for him to struggle towards the end of the season/into the playoffs, but he is the AL RoY until proven otherwise.

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So I was close in predicting Buffalo and Anaheim to be the conference point leaders. Buffalo is definitely the team to beat in the East, with the West being more complicated in terms of the team to beat. I expect the Sabres, Devils, Rangers, and Penguins to advance to the second round. In the West, it is a much tighter conference. However, I think all the higher seeds will advance, with Red Wings, Ducks, Canucks, and Predators advancing.

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Here is a hand I've been thinking about recently. According to Harrington, you should NEVER, EVER fold a set in tournament play. But in a limped pot, with a raiser, a caller, a check-raise all-in, and a check-raiser behind 3 players, is it the right move to fold bottom set?

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t150 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t9505)
UTG+1 (t15330)
MP1 (t16540)
MP2 (t6600)
MP3 (t8910)
CO (t4915)
Hero (t7265)
SB (t7435)
BB (t5955)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with 5 5
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls t150, MP1 calls t150, MP2 calls t150, MP3 calls t150, CO calls t150, Hero calls t150, SB folds, BB checks

Flop: (t1125) 6 7 5 (7 players)
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP1 checks, MP2 checks, MP3 bets t1050, CO folds, Hero calls t1050, BB raises to t5805 (All-in), UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to t10560, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t7710 (All-in), Hero calls t6065 (All-in)

Board: 5h 6d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 19.299% 19.02% 00.27% 156 2.25 { 5c5s }
Hand 1: 70.152% 69.88% 00.27% 573 2.25 { 9s8d }
Hand 2: 10.274% 10.00% 00.27% 82 2.25 { 7s5d }
Hand 3: 00.274% 00.00% 00.27% 0 2.25 { 4s3c }

So according to calculations, with the assumption that two players flopped a straight, with one player having the nut straight, and the other having a "dummy end" of the straight, with the last player flopping two pair (note: I discounted the possibility of set over set), I have a 19% chance to win the hand. Ignoring CEV and $EV, after calling the initial bet of 1050, I have 6065 back with all the action. With Sklansky's fundamental theorem, I need to win at least 19% of the time to be making "the right play". So by calculation, the pot needs to be at least:

(6065/19)*100 = 31921

in order for me to call and making it "the right play". Judging by the action, before my call of 6065, the pot is 24010. With the call of 6065, the pot will be 30075, making my 6065 not the right call at 20%. However, that is with the assumption the hands are what I think they are (which is the best case scenario). If two players flopped the nut straight, and the other player flopped top two pair, I will need even more chips in the pot to make the call "right".

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

820 games 0.005 secs 164,000 games/sec

Board: 5c 6h 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 11.098% 10.98% 00.12% 90 1.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 35.244% 00.00% 35.24% 0 289.00 { 9d8c }
Hand 2: 35.244% 00.00% 35.24% 0 289.00 { 9c8d }
Hand 3: 18.415% 18.29% 00.12% 150 1.00 { 7s6d }


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So with that said, I should've folded since it was -EV for me to be calling with bottom set.

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Congrats to Mike, for having won 3 seats thus far into the WSOP ME. I see a few more coming before its all said and done.

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Finally, Man Utd. will need to come out with a better effort against Roma tomorrow. Down 2-1, they will need to win in order to advance to the semi-finals of the UEFA Champions League. Scary to think, within a week, Man Utd. could be out of the Champions League AND Chelsea being back in the Premier League race...*shudders*